Global Climate Change: Our Present State of Understanding July 7, 2010
Dr. Jelte Harnmeijer has studied mathematics and physics in South Africa, geology in Australia, then spent 7 years working for NASA, and the past few years getting his doctorate in astrobiology from University of Washington. He gave a lecture with fantastic graphics. There was a lot of discussion. Please see his website, which will be updated, for a more detailed summary than below.
Nomenclature
In the 1990's, people talked about ozone holes and greenhouse effect. CFC's were effectively curbed, making the ozone hole one of the best environmental successes.
The term "global warming" now has been changed to "climate change." This change alters how we think about what's happening. We should be worried about climate extremes more than warming. Fred A, for example, noted that climate swings on Waldron have been noticeable in the past four years. Jelte's research bears this out. The freak frosts, snow in the Arabian desert, and so on will have a big effect on, for example, food production.
The climate is weakening, and so we should call it, "Global climate destabilization."
The term "global warming" now has been changed to "climate change." This change alters how we think about what's happening. We should be worried about climate extremes more than warming. Fred A, for example, noted that climate swings on Waldron have been noticeable in the past four years. Jelte's research bears this out. The freak frosts, snow in the Arabian desert, and so on will have a big effect on, for example, food production.
The climate is weakening, and so we should call it, "Global climate destabilization."
The Science - The People - Policy triangle
Science today is a massive industry. You can usually only get access to a journal if you are a scientist in a first world institution, because a subscription costs thousands of dollars. Taxpayers can't see the science they're paying for. Even if they could, the writing is so dense that even a specialist has trouble with it. So, there's a chasm between science and the people.
Democracy provides a motivation for corporations and the media to manipulate people. This leads to short-term thinking. The Chinese, for example, have been systematically buying up mineral rights in Africa, a very long-term plan.
Democracy provides a motivation for corporations and the media to manipulate people. This leads to short-term thinking. The Chinese, for example, have been systematically buying up mineral rights in Africa, a very long-term plan.
Climate Change is Real
The controversy was fabricated by the media, which has different objectives than scientists. From the most recent IPCC report showing the past 150 years, surface temperature and sea level is going up, snow cover is going down.
A map showing temperature changes since 1970, shows tmperatures going down on the Antarctic coast, and the highest increase in Alaska.
A map by Gruber & Galloway, showing greenhouse gasses CO2 and N2O, going back 80,000 years, shows a sudden increase in temperature and gasses now. It is so sudden, that perhaps we are no longer in the Holocene age, but the Anthropocene. What is sobering, is that there is usually a phase lag of 50 years between cause and effect. If that is true now, then the huge jump is from what happened to the atmosphere in the 1950's and 60's, and what we are doing now will show up in our children's time.
We don't know if nitrous oxide played a role in the last 5 big extinctions because it doesn't leave a fossil record. Nitrogen is 80% of our atmosphere, so there is a huge potential for mayhem.
A map showing temperature changes since 1970, shows tmperatures going down on the Antarctic coast, and the highest increase in Alaska.
A map by Gruber & Galloway, showing greenhouse gasses CO2 and N2O, going back 80,000 years, shows a sudden increase in temperature and gasses now. It is so sudden, that perhaps we are no longer in the Holocene age, but the Anthropocene. What is sobering, is that there is usually a phase lag of 50 years between cause and effect. If that is true now, then the huge jump is from what happened to the atmosphere in the 1950's and 60's, and what we are doing now will show up in our children's time.
We don't know if nitrous oxide played a role in the last 5 big extinctions because it doesn't leave a fossil record. Nitrogen is 80% of our atmosphere, so there is a huge potential for mayhem.
Temperature Change map
A map showing what the climate change has been in five continents, and what it would have been if human-origin CO2 had not entered the atmosphere, shows that the models they're using are pretty good. Virtually all the climate change effects can be traced to humans.
World greenhouse gas emissions come from: 14% transportation, 24% energy and heat, 14% industry, 4 % fugitive emissions, 4 % Industrial processes, 12 % land use, etc.
World greenhouse gas emissions come from: 14% transportation, 24% energy and heat, 14% industry, 4 % fugitive emissions, 4 % Industrial processes, 12 % land use, etc.
What is happening?
Temperatures are increasing
Heat waves are increasing
Heavy precipitation events are increasing
Snow cover is diminishing
Weather is becoming less "climatelike": Less predictability, greater amplitude variations with greater frequency.
Hypothesis: Gradual changes (secular changes) do not pose the greatest threat.
Heat waves are increasing
Heavy precipitation events are increasing
Snow cover is diminishing
Weather is becoming less "climatelike": Less predictability, greater amplitude variations with greater frequency.
Hypothesis: Gradual changes (secular changes) do not pose the greatest threat.
How will greenhouse gas emissions trend?
Hydrocarbon demand will increase, but eventually the supplies will run out. The idea of Peak Oil, that we will eventually run out of oil, is now accepted. We may be at peak production now.
Imagine mining a mineral. You go for the high-grade ore first, then mine lower quality ores next, until you get to ores that you don't know how to extract the minerals from. The amount of oil ultimately sets the feasibility of how much you can extract.
World populations have made explosive increases since the 1950's. Conservatively, we will have 9 billion people are predicted by 2050. Most of them will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. How much oil will they be burning? It's determined by industrialization.
You can divide the world into developed, transitional, and developing countries, or into high, medium, and low income. The people at the bottom of this categorization, while they will increase in number, aren't industrialized. Developing countries provide almost 50% of the world's primary commodity exports (raw materials such as oil, titanium, cement), whilst importing less than a third.
If we did industrialize them, we would have to sextuple the total primary commodity output.
Imagine mining a mineral. You go for the high-grade ore first, then mine lower quality ores next, until you get to ores that you don't know how to extract the minerals from. The amount of oil ultimately sets the feasibility of how much you can extract.
World populations have made explosive increases since the 1950's. Conservatively, we will have 9 billion people are predicted by 2050. Most of them will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. How much oil will they be burning? It's determined by industrialization.
You can divide the world into developed, transitional, and developing countries, or into high, medium, and low income. The people at the bottom of this categorization, while they will increase in number, aren't industrialized. Developing countries provide almost 50% of the world's primary commodity exports (raw materials such as oil, titanium, cement), whilst importing less than a third.
If we did industrialize them, we would have to sextuple the total primary commodity output.
Geological Context and Feedback
People say CO2 has been higher than it is now. True, we used to have a CO2 greenhouse atmosphere, as Venus does today, and at least once had average temperatures 8 or 10 degrees hotter than now. However, the change now is ridiculously fast. How will the ocean structure change? How will clouds change?
One reason Alaska is heating up so fast is positive feedback. When ice melts, the black underneath is exposed which heats up; the ice-albedo feedback mechanism. When run in reverse this causes an ice age.
Negative feedback mechanisms limit change. The most important planetary thermostat is the calcium-silicate feedback cycle. Rivers do this: the mechanism takes about 10,000 years for it to kick in. When temperatures go up, water dissolves rock exponentially faster (the Arrhenius relationship). Riverbanks dissolve faster, magnesium, potassium, calcium are released and pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and takes them out to the ocean. This depends on having healthy rivers.
One reason Alaska is heating up so fast is positive feedback. When ice melts, the black underneath is exposed which heats up; the ice-albedo feedback mechanism. When run in reverse this causes an ice age.
Negative feedback mechanisms limit change. The most important planetary thermostat is the calcium-silicate feedback cycle. Rivers do this: the mechanism takes about 10,000 years for it to kick in. When temperatures go up, water dissolves rock exponentially faster (the Arrhenius relationship). Riverbanks dissolve faster, magnesium, potassium, calcium are released and pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and takes them out to the ocean. This depends on having healthy rivers.
Ocean Subsystem
Unlike the atmosphere, oceans equilibrate slowly, one to ten thousand years. They've absorbed 1/3 of the CO2 we've pumped out since the Industrial Revolution. The price of this is the acidity change in the ocean, which has crashed drastically. pH has gone from 8.1 ish to 7.8 ish. pH is logarithmic, so that is a huge change. The CO2 cycle includes Carbonic Acid, and H ions, which dissolve the shells and teeth of ocean animals. It's a positive feedback, because as they dissolve, they release carbon and calcium.
Okygen minimum zones, in the Arab Sea and off the coast of Africa for example, are expanding. The Vampire Squid and Jellyfish love oxygen minimum zones, but more sympathetic species don't.
Temperatures are increasing
pH is decreasing
Oxygen Minimum Zones are expanding
Intense tropical cyclone cycles are increasing
Sea levels are rising.
Okygen minimum zones, in the Arab Sea and off the coast of Africa for example, are expanding. The Vampire Squid and Jellyfish love oxygen minimum zones, but more sympathetic species don't.
Temperatures are increasing
pH is decreasing
Oxygen Minimum Zones are expanding
Intense tropical cyclone cycles are increasing
Sea levels are rising.
Prevent or Adapt?
"Hope" comes from the Greek "elpis," the anticipation of misfortune.
If you run the various predictions into 2100, you see that the high latitudes are doomed; polar bears and penguins will not make it. " The worst case scenario is that Earth would become like its sister planet, Venus" - Stephen Hawking
Lovelock of the Gaia Hypothesis, wonders how the ocean's structure will change. If it's hot enough, it may stratify from the hot photic zone to the cooler bottom. We'll then lose our major CO2 sink, the algae. This will desertify the equatorial waters. Eastsound is desertifying, because it's shallow and low flow. Lovelock predicts a diaspora of people from the equatorial regions north. Floral kingdoms at the north and south edges of continents are getting pushed towards the arctic zones and then they'll go extinct.
Jelte looked at lizards because we have good statistics on them. The broad conclusion is that by 2080, 39% of all lizard populations and 20% of all lizard species will be extinct. They can survive high temperatures, but they need a specific temperature range between which they need to reproduce in spring. If that's exceeded, they die out.
If you run the various predictions into 2100, you see that the high latitudes are doomed; polar bears and penguins will not make it. " The worst case scenario is that Earth would become like its sister planet, Venus" - Stephen Hawking
Lovelock of the Gaia Hypothesis, wonders how the ocean's structure will change. If it's hot enough, it may stratify from the hot photic zone to the cooler bottom. We'll then lose our major CO2 sink, the algae. This will desertify the equatorial waters. Eastsound is desertifying, because it's shallow and low flow. Lovelock predicts a diaspora of people from the equatorial regions north. Floral kingdoms at the north and south edges of continents are getting pushed towards the arctic zones and then they'll go extinct.
Jelte looked at lizards because we have good statistics on them. The broad conclusion is that by 2080, 39% of all lizard populations and 20% of all lizard species will be extinct. They can survive high temperatures, but they need a specific temperature range between which they need to reproduce in spring. If that's exceeded, they die out.
Discussion
Fred A: E.O.Wilson's "Anthill" is worth reading.
Fred A and others: It's hard to trust all studies since we've seen politically motivated science become accepted as fact.
Janet R: The IPCC website is easy to access. There are some good books on the ocean.
Jelte: You can divide people's thinking into catastrophists, tree huggers, and technogeeks.
Fred A: We can use high-entropy solutions such as machinery, which is easy, or use low-entropy solutions which require careful timing and planning. For example, we could be using willows for fuel instead of trees that have to be harvested with chainsaws, taking money out of the bank.
Jelte: Right, oil is 300 million year old solar energy, taking money out of the bank.
Julie: Inequality is another form of that; we're mining people.